Trump has issued 6 Hormuz ultimatums since March 21. He has extended every single one. The model weights this pattern heavily.
Every major actor's dominant strategy mapped. Structural ceilings and floors emerge from incentive analysis — not just historical patterns.
| Iran \ Trump | Strike Infrastructure | Extend Again |
|---|---|---|
| Open Strait / Deal |
Trump: +8 / Iran: +6
Both win — most stable
|
Trump: +3 / Iran: +7
Iran wins, Trump loses credibility
|
| Refuse + Close Bab el-Mandeb |
Trump: +2 / Iran: -4
Escalation, both lose
|
Trump: -5 / Iran: +4
Iran wins by waiting
|
| Partial Concession |
Trump: +5 / Iran: +2
Face-saving compromise
|
Trump: +4 / Iran: +5
Most likely equilibrium
|
Based on: threat pattern history (3/3 prior extensions), mediator activity, Iran's mixed signals, domestic US political pressure, missing pilot factor.
| Trump threat count (this cycle) | 6 threats |
| Prior deadlines kept | 0 / 3 |
| Iran foreign minister tone | Mixed — "open to talks" |
| Mediator activity (Pak/Tur/Egypt) | Active — working to last minute |
| Domestic US pressure on Trump | High — gas $4+, markets down |
| Iran threat escalation | Bab el-Mandeb threat added |
| US pilot still missing | Prevents total escalation |
| Oil price trajectory | $103+ / projected $130 if strike |
38% probability of another extension. The missing US pilot is the most critical blocking factor — Trump cannot escalate fully while a servicemember may be in Iranian custody. Iran knows this. Mediators are using this window.
Expect a partial confidence-building measure (CBM) by Tuesday that allows Trump to declare "progress" without full Hormuz opening. Oil stays above $95. Full resolution: 30-60 days minimum.
Watch the signal: if the missing pilot is returned or confirmed dead before 8PM Tuesday, the probability of a strike rises from 22% to approximately 35%.