BRENT -- --
GOLD -- --
BTC -- --
S&P 500 -- --
EUR/USD --
NAT GAS -- --
CEASEFIRE APR30 --
HORMUZ MAY --
OIL $130 --
RECESSION --
GOLD $5K --
BTC $90K --
RUSSIA Q3 --
CHINA MIL --
BRENT -- --
GOLD -- --
BTC -- --
S&P 500 -- --
EUR/USD --
NAT GAS -- --
CEASEFIRE APR30 --
HORMUZ MAY --
OIL $130 --
RECESSION --
GOLD $5K --
BTC $90K --
RUSSIA Q3 --
CHINA MIL --
— CEASEFIRE IN EFFECT · ENGINE v6.0

Two-week pause.
What comes next?

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 7. Iran accepted. Hormuz reopening via Pakistan coordination. Our engine now tracks the probability of a permanent deal and whether the ceasefire holds.

CEASEFIRE TIMELINE · APR 7 → APR 21 · 14 DAYS
APR 7
APR 21
✓ Ceasefire declared Day 1 of 14 Permanent deal window
NEXT 14 DAYS · PERMANENT DEAL SCENARIOS
Permanent deal
--
Within 14 days
Extended pause
--
Needs more time
Hormuz fully open
--
Within 2 weeks
Ceasefire collapses
--
Netanyahu risk
Black swan
--
Unknown
READ FULL INTELLIGENCE REPORT →
CEASEFIRE STATUS · APR 7–21
ACTIVE
DAY 2 OF 14 · ISLAMABAD TALKS APR 11
KEY SIGNALS ● LIVE
Ceasefire statusACTIVE
Hormuz transitCRITICAL
Oil signalNORMAL
Gold signalFEAR-PREMIUM
VIX--
Days to FOMC--
Articles scored--
Phase--
Enginev6.0 LIVE
BRENT CRUDE
--
--
60D: oil signal active
GOLD XAU/USD
--
--
Q3: $4,800–$5,200
BITCOIN
--
▲ 0%
Q3: --
S&P 500
--
--
YE: --
EUR/USD
--
▲ 0.2%
Q2: 1.05–1.10
NAT GAS
--
--
Q2: Elevated
— ACTIVE INTELLIGENCE · ENGINE v6.0

Live Conflict Trackers

6 scenarios. Beta-Binomial base rates. Extremized aggregation. Brier score target <0.12. Updated every 15 minutes from live market data + Google News RSS.

MIDDLE EAST
Iran — USA/Israel War
● CEASEFIRE
PERMANENT DEAL APR 30 --
HORMUZ FULLY OPEN --
OIL ABOVE $130 --
2-week ceasefire active · Islamabad talks Apr 11 · Engine v6.0
Deal window: Apr 7–21, 2026MEDIUM-HIGH confidence
EASTERN EUROPE
Russia — Ukraine War
● ACTIVE
CEASEFIRE Q3 2026 --
TERRITORIAL FREEZE --
FULL WITHDRAWAL --
Polymarket 19% · Metaculus 22% · Putin hardened terms
Q4 2026 – Q1 2027LOW confidence
COMMODITIES
Gold Bull Market
● TRACKING
GOLD ABOVE $5,000 --
BULL MARKET CONTINUES --
BELOW $3,800 Q3 --
Goldman $5,400 · JPM $6,300 · CB buying 1,237t/yr
Current: --MEDIUM-HIGH
MACRO ECONOMICS
US Recession Risk
● TRACKING
RECESSION DEC 2026 --
FED RATE CUT SEP --
S&P BELOW 5,000 --
Goldman 30% · Moody's 40% · Polymarket 31% · Our model --
Apr 28–29 FOMC DecisionMEDIUM confidence
CRYPTO MARKETS
Bitcoin Bear / Recovery
● TRACKING
SIDEWAYS $55K–$80K --
ABOVE $90K BY Q3 --
BELOW $55K CAPITULATION --
Polymarket 22% · Requires war resolution + rate cuts
Current: --LOW confidence
ASIA PACIFIC
China — Taiwan Tension
● MONITORING
STATUS QUO MAINTAINED --
INCREASED PRESSURE --
MILITARY ACTION 2026 --
US Intel: no fixed timeline · PLA purges delayed readiness
Post Iran resolutionMEDIUM confidence
— INTELLIGENCE BRIEFINGS

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