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AI-powered geopolitical forecasting. Real data. Weighted probability models. Live conflict trackers. Updated as the world changes — not after.

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LIVE
BRENT $104.00 ▼0.8%
GOLD $4,287 ▼0.3%
BITCOIN $71,240 ▼1.2%
HORMUZ 4% of normal
CEASEFIRE 61% Apr 30
RECESSION 49% Moody's
S&P 500 5,614 ▼7% YTD
VIX 32.4 elevated
BRENT $104.00 ▼0.8%
GOLD $4,287 ▼0.3%
BITCOIN $71,240 ▼1.2%
HORMUZ 4% of normal
CEASEFIRE 61% Apr 30
RECESSION 49% Moody's
S&P 500 5,614 ▼7% YTD
VIX 32.4 elevated
Active Intelligence

Live Conflict Trackers

Every conflict weighted by signal strength, news volume, economic impact, and resolution probability. Updated continuously.

Middle East
Iran — USA/Israel War
ACTIVE
Ceasefire by Apr 3061%
Hormuz reopens May54%
Oil above $13017%
Resolution Forecast
Apr 20 — May 15, 2026
MEDIUM confidence
Eastern Europe
Russia — Ukraine War
ACTIVE
Ceasefire Q3 202638%
Territorial freeze52%
Full withdrawal4%
Resolution Forecast
Q4 2026 — Q1 2027
LOW confidence
Commodities
Gold Bull Market
TRACKING
Gold above $5,00044%
Bull market continues67%
Below $3,800 Q321%
Next Peak Forecast
Q3 2026 — $4,800–$5,200
MEDIUM-HIGH
Macro Economics
US Recession Risk
TRACKING
Recession by Dec 202649%
Fed rate cut by Sep58%
S&P below 5,00033%
Critical Date
Apr 28–29 FOMC
MEDIUM confidence
Crypto Markets
Bitcoin Bear / Recovery
TRACKING
Sideways $60K–$80K47%
Above $90K by Q331%
Below $55K capitulation22%
Recovery Forecast
Q4 2026 if war resolves
LOW confidence
Asia Pacific
China — Taiwan Tension
MONITORING
Status quo maintained58%
Increased pressure34%
Military action 20268%
Watch Window
Post Iran resolution
MEDIUM confidence
OIL PRICE SCENARIOS — 60-DAY FORECAST FROM $104 BRENT 50,000 SIMULATIONS
NOW
WK2
WK4
WK6
WK8
WK10
WK12
Resolution 65% — Expected $87
Sustained 17% — Expected $120
Escalation 17% — Expected $136
Restnode Score: 65% Resolution ↓
Signal Feed

Weighted News Intelligence

Every news item scored by source credibility, geopolitical weight, and market impact. Noise filtered before it reaches you.

🔴 HIGH IMPACT — Iran / Oil / Markets
2H AGO · CNBC
Trump extends Hormuz deadline to April 6 — no coalition committed yet
Signal: 9.2/10 · Impact: Oil +$3.40
5H AGO · Reuters
Iran FM rejects direct US negotiations — Hormuz closure continues
Signal: 8.8/10 · Ceasefire odds ▼4%
8H AGO · IEA
IEA: 400M barrel emergency release — largest in 50-year history
Signal: 8.1/10 · Price ceiling confirmed
12H AGO · Goldman Sachs
Goldman: Brent $180 base, $200+ bull if Hormuz stays closed past May
Signal: 7.4/10 · Escalation tail risk
18H AGO · Polymarket
Ceasefire by April 30 odds rise to 61% after Pakistan mediator talks
Signal: 7.1/10 · Resolution probability ▲6%
🟡 MONITOR — Other Conflicts & Macro
3H AGO · BBC
Ukraine drones hit 3 Russian oil depots — Kyiv escalates pressure
Signal: 6.2/10 · Russia/Ukraine conflict
6H AGO · Motley Fool
Moody's recession model hits 49% — highest in 3 years
Signal: 7.8/10 · US Recession tracker
9H AGO · CBS News
Gold falls 0.3% to $4,287 — war premium partially priced out
Signal: 5.9/10 · Gold bull market
14H AGO · CoinDesk
Bitcoin Fear & Greed at 10 — extreme fear not seen since 2022 crash
Signal: 5.4/10 · BTC bear market
22H AGO · Reuters
China pays Iran Yuan toll for 12 tankers — supply partially resumed
Signal: 6.8/10 · Nash equilibrium stable
Market Intelligence

Live Asset Forecasts

Restnode probability scores across all tracked assets. Updated with each new signal batch.

BRENT CRUDE
$104
▼ 0.8%
60D FORECAST
$87 — 65%
GOLD XAU
$4,287
▼ 0.3%
Q3 FORECAST
$4,800–5,200
BITCOIN
$71K
▼ 1.2%
Q3 FORECAST
$60K–80K
S&P 500
5,614
▼ 7% YTD
YE FORECAST
Recession 49%
EUR/USD
1.082
▲ 0.2%
Q2 FORECAST
1.05–1.10
NAT GAS
$4.21
▲ 34% MoM
Q2 FORECAST
Elevated risk
Restnode Probability Score — Oil
65%
Oil falls below $100 within 60 days. Driven by ceasefire pressure, SPR release, and Nash equilibrium ceiling at $130. 50,000 simulations. March 30, 2026.
Key Signal To Watch
Polymarket
ceasefire odds
Below 40% → Escalation scenario
Above 75% → Resolution confirmed
Currently 61% — watch Apr 6 deadline
How It Works

The Intelligence Engine

Built on 9Stars Group BI infrastructure. Every forecast runs through the same rigorous pipeline — no opinions, only weighted signal.

01 — DATA INGESTION
News Credibility Scoring
Every news item scored against source credibility databases, cross-referenced for consistency, weighted by geopolitical relevance and economic impact.
02 — FACTOR WEIGHTING
Bayesian Multi-Factor Model
15+ variables per conflict, each weighted by evidence quality and historical analog strength. Inputs disclosed. Weights proprietary.
03 — MONTE CARLO
50,000 Simulations
Each forecast runs 50,000 scenario simulations. Output is a probability distribution with confidence intervals — not a single point prediction.
04 — GAME THEORY
Nash Equilibrium Analysis
Every major actor's dominant strategy is mapped. Structural ceilings and floors emerge from incentive analysis — not just historical patterns.
05 — HISTORICAL ANALOG
Crisis Pattern Matching
Current shocks matched against historical analogs weighted by similarity. 1973, 1990, 2011, 2022 — each informs the model appropriately.
06 — PUBLIC SCORECARD
Forecast Accountability
Every prediction tracked. Every episode opens with last week's scorecard — win or loss, no spin. Credibility is earned through track record.
Early Access

Get the signal before the market does.

Weekly probability updates. Conflict trackers. Forecast scorecards. No noise. Powered by 9Stars Group.

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